[ADMB Users] mceval output inconsistent with mcmc display

Campbell, Alex Alex.Campbell at deedi.qld.gov.au
Thu Jun 9 01:30:07 PDT 2011


mcmc stdout displays the current value of the (negative log) likelihood
(twice for some reason) then "mcmc sim x acceptance rate y1 y2" like
this:

757.732553269085 757.732553269085
 mcmc sim 401  acceptance rate 0.0698254364089776 0.14

I've checked the code to make sure it is actually the likelihood being
displayed and it seems to be but tell me if I'm wrong. when I use mceval
the parameter values are inconsistent with this displayed likelihood
(their likelihood is much lower). How could this be happening? by the
end of a million iteration run the displayed likelihood was 603 which
seems within reason. the corresponding parameter values obtained from
mceval were around -700! and needless to say a really terrible fit. 

any idea what could be going wrong? Am I interpreting the displayed
output correctly? The current likelihood should be the current
*accepted* likelihood, so should translate to valid parameters in the
saved to psv and read during mceval.? Code and input files are rather
big - I won't spam people with it. I can send directly if anyone
volunteers. This is what I'm doing for the mceval section if that sheds
any light (I doubt it). 

  if (mceval_phase()) {
    cout << a_sr << " " << b_sr << " " << c_sr << " " << iota << " " <<
vartheta << " " << vartheta_ce << " " << nexpp << " ";
    for (int i=1;i<=nyears;i++) {
      cout << xi(i) << " ";
    }    
    cout << log_sigma_xi << " ";
    for (int i=1;i<=(nyears_spatial*ncells);i++) {
      cout << psi(i) << " ";
    }
    cout << log_gamma << " " << rho_psi << " ";
    cout << log_sigma_psi << " ";
    cout << sigma_C << " " << sigma_E << " ";
    cout << early_kappa << " ";
    //cout << rho_psi_cl << " ";
    //cout << log_sigma_psi_cl << " ";
    cout << E1980 << " " << E1985 << " " << nexpp2 << endl;
    //cout << mu_psi_cl << " ";
  }


This has occurred both using admb 10.0 on a windoze box and admb 9.1 (I
think) on a bigger, faster, 64-bit windoze box. I've also discovered
more linux-windoze inconsistencies but that's another story for another
day..

-alex



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