[ADMB Users] State-space Pella-Tomlison model goes ballistic

[Rubén Roa]

Hi ADMB-experts,

I'm trying to fit a Pella-Tomlinson model to absolute annual biomass MLEs from another, more basic model, and the catch history of a sea urchin fishery from southern Chile. I took the Theta tpl of Pedersen et al. (2011, Ecological Modelling 222:1394) to adapt it to my case. The catch history is 28 years long (1986 - 2013) whereas the MLEs of absolute biomass cover the latest 18 years.

The problem is that although the hyper-parameters seem to have been estimated, the random effects estimates are printed as  -1.#QNBe+00 whereas the standard errors and correlations are printed as -1.#INDe+00 or -1.#IND in the cor file.

The par file does print the random effect estimates but the max. gradient component is very high.

I seem to face some run time issues but since my experience with ADMB is very limited and this is my first try at a state-space model with ADMB-RE, I cannot rule out some programming issues, poor initial values, or something I haven't even considered.

Thanks in advance for any advice if you can take a look at my code.

Ruben 
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Ruben H. Roa-Ureta, Ph. D.
AZTI Tecnalia, Marine Research Division
Txatxarramedi Ugartea z/g, Sukarrieta,
Bizkaia, Spain
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